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Early Line – Louisville at Kentucky

Posted by Matt on September 13, 2007

We here at “The Nasty Boys” do not condone gambling, especially of the illegal sort.  But if you are in a place we’re you can gamble legally, have at it.  Regardless, we like to take a look at spreads, money lines, and over/unders because those Vegas guys seem to know what they’re talking about and sometimes they’re eerily accurate.

With that being said, the early spread on the Louisville at Kentucky game has the Cards at a 6.5 point favorite with an over/under of 77 points.  Mind you, Louisville and M.T.S.U. scored a combined 100 points (58-42) last week and the two teams that will meet at Commonwealth Stadium this week are very offensive heavy.   The spread is less than I expected, not because I don’t think Kentucky will win becasue I do, but because I thought the National sentiments on Louisville were very positive and very unanimous.  I guess giving up 42 to Middle Tennessee State at home kills a bit of your momentum.

I suspect the Over/Under to increase to a bit closer to 80 and the final spread to be 7 points, both by game time.

With just three days to go, we’ll have more commentary on the upcoming game as the week progresses…


7 Responses to “Early Line – Louisville at Kentucky”

  1. Steven said

    I honestly think Louisville wins this game as it is Kentuckys first real test of the season and you don’t really know what you have yet. (Let’s face it, putting up a lot of points on two minor teams from your own state that no one outside of Kentucky has ever heard of, isn’t that impressive.)

    Having said that, I firmly believe that Kentucky will score plenty of points on what is basically a nonexistent Louisville defense. (Thing is, even if Kentucky lights up the scoreboard I think it gives a false sense AGAIN of how good your offense really is because none of your first 3 opponents have anything that even resembles a defense.)

    The problem for Kentucky IMHO is that Louisvilles offense is better than Kentuckys and as they did last week, Louisville can merely go out there and outscore you.

    Louisville by 10 to 14 when all is said and done…..

  2. Matt said

    I think you’re underestimating Kent State and the MAC… Kent State beat Iowa State 23-14 the week before..

    OSU didn’t cover the spread against a MAC team (Akron) this weekend and Bowling Green gave Michigan State ALL they could handle…17-28..

  3. Condo said

    I agree with you to an extent Matt.. the MAC isn’t quite as bad as it was last year and Kent State was picked in many publications to win the MAC this season. With that said, Iowa State lost at home to D-1AA (Football Championship Series) Northern Iowa 24-13 so putting much stock into Kent State beating Iowa State is somewhat moot.

    This is definitely the strongest team UK has fielded in quite a while, and it should make for an exciting offensive shootout, I just think in the end, Louisville overall is better in the ‘little things’ like place kicking for example and will barely sneak out of Commonwealth Stadium with a W.

  4. Matt said

    Just sayin’, OSU couldn’t cover the spread at home against a MAC team…

    Just sayin’…

  5. Matt said

    But in all reality…I feel like sooooooo many people just take Kentucky for Kentucky without researching the strides we’ve made…

    How soon people forget about our defeat of a Gaines Adams lead Clemson squad with, at the time, THE WORST RANKED DEFENSE IN DIVISION 1.

    For instance, Doug “I stole your wallet” Gottlieb was on ESPN talking about how Kentucky is a “lower-tier SEC team” yea…and I am sure he’d claim MasterCard is a “lower-tier” thievable credit card too..

    People think we’re just going to get crushed by any body with a “real team”….yet we lost to Tennessee AT Tennessee by only a touchdown last year, beat Georgia at home, lost to South Carolina by only a touchdown.

    I’d say the only real question mark was the LSU game at Baton Rouge and they’re proving the point right now that not a whole lot can hang with the Tigers.

  6. Condo said

    Very true, OSU didn’t cover the spread vs the MAC team Akron. Akron is again another solid MAC team and OSU is going to be down this year. Certainly won’t be surprised if they go up to Seattle and lose tomorrow afternoon (although I hope they don’t).

    I very much believe that UK is a very good team and can be a player in the SEC East.

    Do I think they can beat Louisville? Definitely. Do I think they will? No. But will not be surprised AT ALL if UK wins this ballgame.

  7. raptorcox said

    I was wrong that U of L would take care of business, so Congrats on the UK win.

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